Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
